The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability, and Credibility
نویسندگان
چکیده
Do public opinion dynamics play an important role in understanding conflict trajectories between democratic governments and other rival groups? We interpret several theories of opinion dynamics as competing clusters of contemporaneous causal links connoting reciprocity, accountability and credibility. We then translate these clusters into four distinct Bayesian structural time series models. The models are fit to events data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with variables for U.S. intervention and Jewish public opinion about the prospects for peace. We find that a credibility model, which allows Jewish public opinion to influence U.S., Palestinian, and Israeli behavior within a given month, fits the data best. For the credibility model there is evidence that more pacific Israeli opinion leads to more immediate hostility by the Palestinians toward the Israelis. The direction of this response suggests a negative feedback mechanism in which low level conflict is maintained and momentum toward either all out war or dramatic peace is slowed. In addition, a forecasting model that includes Jewish public opinion is shown to forecast ex ante better than a model that ignores this variable.
منابع مشابه
Reciprocity , Accountability and Credibility In International Relations ∗
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تاریخ انتشار 2007